Market & pricing
How methanol is priced
Four different kinds of published number, only one of which resembles what anyone actually pays. Knowing which is which is the whole skill.
Methanol has no exchange, no futures screen a buyer can glance at, and no published transaction price. What it has instead is a set of producer-published reference numbers, a network of bilateral contracts negotiated as a discount off them, and a subscription industry that reports what material actually changed hands at.
Understanding which of those you are looking at is the difference between an anchored negotiation and a guess. It is also how you avoid the single most common analytical error in the market, which is comparing two published prices that are not the same kind of number.
Key points
- A posted contract price is a producer's published reference level for a region. Contracts reference it; they do not settle at it.
- A non-discounted reference price is a different instrument, used in North America, set deliberately above the settlement range.
- Europe resets quarterly. North America, Asia Pacific and China reset monthly. Cadence matters when you are timing a contract.
- Most industrial contracts are written as posted-minus-discount, index-linked, or fixed for a period. Each is a different risk position.
- Price reporting agencies publish assessed transaction prices on subscription. If you trade at scale, that is what you actually need.
What each published number actually is
Posted contract price
A producer publishes, ahead of each period, the price at which it will reference contract business in a region. It is genuine information — it moves with feedstock costs and market conditions, and every participant watches it — but it is a list price. Buyers negotiate a discount off it, and the discount is where volume, contract length and relationship do their work.
Non-discounted reference price
Used for the US Gulf Coast, this is explicitly set above where contracts settle. The name is the clue: it is the price before any discount, published so that contracts can be written as a percentage of it. Reading it as a market level overstates US prices substantially, and reading it alongside Asian postings produces a regional spread that does not exist.
Spot assessments
Price reporting agencies survey market participants and publish assessed prices for spot cargoes. This is the closest thing to a transaction price available, and it is a paid product. For a buyer taking a few tankers a year, the subscription usually costs more than the information saves. Above that, it stops being optional.
Your delivered price
The number on your invoice, which includes freight, inland distribution, format and service charges on top of the material cost. Never published anywhere. See how a UK delivered price is built up.
How contracts reference the price
Whichever structure you take, you are choosing where volatility lands. Decide deliberately, because a supplier will otherwise decide for you.
| Structure | How it works | Suits you when |
|---|---|---|
| Posted minus discount | Price tracks the producer posting less an agreed figure or percentage. | You want transparency and can absorb period-to-period movement. |
| Index-linked | Price follows a named published index, sometimes with a lag or a collar. | You are large enough to argue about which index, and want a formula rather than a negotiation each period. |
| Fixed for a period | An agreed price for a quarter, half-year or year. | Budget certainty matters more than getting the best number — and you accept the supplier has priced the risk in. |
| Spot | Priced per order at prevailing market levels. | Volumes are small or irregular and a contract is not worth the administration. |
Whatever the structure, read the change-of-price and force majeure clauses before the price clause. In a volatile market those determine what actually happens when the benchmark moves €315 a tonne in a single quarter — which, as the April 2026 reset demonstrated, it can.
What to do with all this
- Ask what your price references. If the answer is "our list", ask what moves the list.
- Check the basis before comparing anything. Two numbers in dollars per tonne are not necessarily the same kind of number.
- Date every figure you record. An undated methanol price becomes misinformation within a quarter.
- Time contract discussions around the reset. The European posting changes quarterly; negotiating the week it lands is a different conversation from negotiating the week before.
Prices on this page are published reference levels, dated and sourced. They are not quotations, not forecasts, and not a basis for a trading decision. If you are buying at a scale where being wrong is expensive, subscribe to a price reporting agency.
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